MLL is second largest private sector shipping company in India with a
diversified business model. The company primarily focuses on international
seaborne bulk transportation and tanker shipping operations. However,
strategically in order to reduce dependence on the volatile shipping
segment the company has ventured into dredging, offshore and coal mining.
Considering the eternal fact that volatility in freight rates and
cyclicality is a given for the shipping industry, we believe MLL's strategy
to diversify revenue sources is very positive. For FY10, we expect
company's non-shipping businesses, namely, dredging, offshore operations
and coal mining to contribute 26% to its revenues and over 35% to its
EBITDA. In this manner, MLL is expected to arrest the impact of cyclicality
to a large extent. We initiate coverage on the stock with an 'Accumulate'
rating.

Key Investment Highlights
.. Addition of a Rig to augment revenues: MLL has recently received
delivery of it's maiden jack up rig from Keppel's and the same shall fetch
$92,700 per day for 3 years as per its contract with Great Ship. Since no
operating costs are involved, MLL shall earn about $34m directly at EBITDA
level every year.

.. Baltic Dry Index appears to have bottomed: Since the beginning of the
Chinese New Year, the Chinese EXIM trade has picked up gradually and
helped the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) recover from its lows. Also with the
Chinese Stimulus packages, the commodity shipments are likely to rebound
in coming months and further boost the BDI. This bodes well for the dry
bulk business of MLL as it has 30% exposure to spot markets.

.. Coal mines and Dredging provides the hedge: Gaining from experience MLL
has been able to improve it's charter yields continuously by managing its
cost of operating dredgers. Dredging business and coal mines which formed
7% and 3% of the revenues in Q3FY09 respectively is expected to double
their share in revenues in FY10, given the full year operations of all 4
dredgers and mines. This shall help MLL to hedge revenues against the
cyclicality of pure vanilla shipping business.

Valuations
We would have liked to adopt a sum of parts valuation basis, wherein
ideally the offshore business would earn higher PE multiples, but in
current market scenario we conservatively stick to vanilla valuations.
Assigning target PE of 3x on FY9e EPS, which is about 0.4x its FY09
estimated book, our target price of Rs 32.5 provides an upside of over 27%
from current market price of Rs25.6.

---- L.kannan